February 22: Well, He changed his mind and will run for re-election.
John Shadegg is not running for reelection.
Speculation is rampant: priming himself to run for the Senate when McCain becomes President? Wants to avoid a tough race vs Bob Lord? Tired and wants to spend time with his family?
Until just a few minutes ago, I was certain that McCain wasn't going resign his seat unless he won the general election. Now I think that he may have told folks that he is at least thinking about resigning to focus solely on the White House.
If he let people know that he would resign his seat if he was the Republican nominee, it would make sense for Shadegg to announce now. He gives the party a chance to find a viable candidate to campaign and makes him readily available for appointment to fill McCain's seat until an election occurs.
If he had run for re-election, there is no way that his party could put his name on the short list for the governor. Janet would appoint him immediately to the Senate and hand the CD-3 seat to Lord.
If John does resign, he will wait until he has completely locked up the nomination. (Huckabee could still force a brokered convention, mathematically speaking).